Tomando en cuenta datos agrícolas y de uso urbano del agua y la hidrología de la región se plantearon 16 escenarios de manejo de agua que incluyeron combinaciones de las siguientes políticas de manejo de agua: reuso de aguas tratadas, transferencia de agua del Río Colorado (acueducto El Hongo-La Misión), desalación y sobreexplotación. Del resultado de la ejecución del modelo se obtuvieron los costos de escasez, disponibilidad a pagar y escasez de agua para la ciudad de Ensenada, la agricultura de Maneadero y Guadalupe. Estos se consideraron indicadores de desempeño económico a fin de jerarquizar los escenarios de manejo de agua. Se analizó también la asignación de agua entre usuarios agrícolas y urbanos, las entregas de agua de cada acuífero a cada tipo de demanda y la administración de las aguas residuales tratadas destinadas al reuso en riego agrícola, recarga de acuíferos y de la presa Rodríguez Zamora. Las opciones con mejor desempeño económico por ocasionar los menores costos de escasez (4.2 millones de pesos (M$/año)) en relación a las otras opciones, fueron las que incluyen el reuso de aguas tratadas destinadas en su mayor parte al riego agrícola. El acueducto El Hongo-La Misión fue la segunda mejor opción, aunque a un alto costo de escasez para las agrícolas (9.5 M$/año). La desalación de mar nunca fue considerada como una opción viable y el modelo asumió como mejor opción el no utilizar ninguna de las opciones de abasto a un alto costo de escasez (37.4 M$/año). La sobreexplotación de acuíferos presentó los valores más bajos de escasez, aunque esta opción no es sustentable.
A groundwater flow model was developed in order to study the water table behavior and to evaluate several groundwater management alternatives in the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, Baja California, Mexico. During the simulation of the geohydrological model of the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer is used a two-dimensional groundwater flow model and the information proportionate for the National Commission of Water, the State Public Services Commission of Ensenada, as well as the information generated by academic and research works carried out in the study zone, about the geohydrological conditions that present the Guadalupe Valle Aquifer. A groundwater flow simulator is modified and improved from the numerical point of view. Now, the groundwater flow simulator counts with subroutines to consider the effects of variables as evapotranspiration and surface water flow (or drains). Both steady-state and transient calibration were carried out in order to obtain the best possible match between the calculated and the measured water table elevation in the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer. Based on the analysis of the collected information, the beginning of the simulation period is February of 1984, and the evolution of the aquifer for a period of 21 years is calculated, using a sampling interval of one month. According to the simulator results, are reproduce the configurations of the phreatic surface for those periods with field observations. Among them are the phreatic surfaces of May 1985, June 1988, April 1990, May 1998, September 2001, March 2003, February 2004, April 2004, June 2004, October 2004 and April 2005. In general, the comparison of the phreatic surface configurations, observed and calculated, have a good adjustment qualitative and quantitatively speaking. In particular, is calculated an indicator of adjustment between the calculated data by the numerical simulator and the measured data in the field for a finite number of wells, whose result is satisfactory, according to the thesis objectives. In addition, in the whole simulation period (1984-2007) is appreciated a trend of the water table depletion in the aquifer. Validation of the simulator results is developed throughout the comparison with the measured water table elevation generated in the six sampling campaign (2004-2005) carried out as a complementary work of this thesis. Six groundwater management alternatives of the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer (2007-2025) were analyzed. Throughout the simulation of the groundwater management alternatives, the goal of the analysis was to seek the total maximum volume of groundwater discharge (that is, the optimum according to the objectives of this thesis). These alternatives are classified in four types of scenarios, among them are included the scenarios designed to evaluate the possible effects of the current groundwater management alternative, to supply in the future the current volume of groundwater if the recharge of water is reduced, to supply in the future an increment of the current volume of groundwater if the recharge of water is reduced, and to supply in the future a volume of groundwater discharge considered as sustainable. Finally, as a result of this thesis was developed an integrated hydrogeological evaluation that determines the conditions of the groundwater resource and permits planning a management of the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer. In addition, based on the simulation results can be established a technical criteria and define strategies for the management and sustainable conservation of the groundwater resources.